Журнал бактериологии и паразитологии

Абстрактный

Модель развития пандемии COVID-19 в странах Африки

Косси Амузуви, Кетеви А. Ассамаган*, Сомиеало Азоте, Саймон Х. Коннелл, Жан Батист Фанкам Фанкам, Феносоа Фаномезана, Алувани Гуга, Сирил Э. Халия, Тойво С. Маботе, Франциско Фениас Макукуле, Дефни Матебула, Азвинндини Муронга, Кондвани CC Мвале, Энн Нджери, Эбоде Ф. Онийе, Лаза Ракотондравохитра, Джордж Зимба

We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R_₀, and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R_₀ ≤ 4 at the start of the pandemic but have since fallen to R_₀~1. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between 1%-10% of the recovered cases.